A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each composes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
